It has been 32 years since Forbes began to track the wealth of the richest 400 Americans. Today, when the minimum requirement is $1 billion, the list keeps on expanding. Thus, this bring up a question: when the world will see the first trillionaire?
Andrew Amoils, senior analyst at South Africa-based global affluence tracker New World Wealth believes that there is an 11 percent chance of a trillionaire within the next 25 years.
His predicting takes into account various criteria, such as GDP per capita, wealth per capita, commodity price, exchange rate and price-earnings ratio forecasts, as well as the outlook in specific countries including the U.S., Russia and India.
Credit Suisse Group AG, among others, claims that it’s reasonable to expect that as many as 11 trillionaires will emerge within the next two generations.
“Two generations ahead, future extrapolation of current wealth growth rates yields almost a billion millionaires, equivalent to 20 per cent of the total adult population,” investment bank Credit Suisse wrote in an annual Global Wealth Report.
“If this scenario unfolds, then billionaires will be commonplace, and there is likely to be a few trillionaires too, eleven according to our best estimate.”
A trillion dollars, which is equivalent of $140 for every person on the planet, is enough money to buy up every last inch of property in central London at today’s prices, according to The Times.
At the same time, some consider the period of 25 years to be too short for a new trillionaire to come, as, for example, Oliver Williams, of the London-based consultants Wealth Insight, expects first to come in fifty years time.
“You can’t be exact on when we will see the first trillionaire, and it is ‘when’ not ‘if’, but it is doubtful that it will be within 25 years; double that estimate would be more likely,” Mr Williams told The Times.
He added: “The first trillionaire will be an inventor, someone who creates something world-changing, like Bill Gates did with the PC. It might be a solution to a global problem, such as the lack of fresh water, or something the world didn’t know we needed, like Facebook.”
Thus, several analysts from the financial sector predict Bill Gates, to be the world’s first trillionaire, who is the founder of the world’s most famous software company and is dedicated to eradicating malaria.
The 58-years-old business mogul is currently the world’s richest man with a fortune of $79.5 billion. Carlos Slim and Warren Buffett, who are valued at $67.3 billion and USD 64.8 billion respectively are also in the running, although with Buffett at age 83 could be a factor.
Actually, several wealth experts believe that in order to achieve Bill Gates’ level of success, it will take several Bill Gates achievements from one individual to reach the trillion-dollar mark.
“It might take the founder of five of today’s Microsofts to reach a trillion, but we’re going to see larger and larger Microsofts,” said tax lawyer Bob Lord.
“Think of what folks would have said in 1980 about the prospect of having a $100 billionaire in 25 years, yet Gates reached that level in the 90’s,” before he started giving away large blocks of Microsoft shares to his foundation and as Microsoft matured, its stock value declined.